Weekly Pearl River Freight Index (6.6-6.12)
珠江航运运价指数周刊2020第21期
SOURCE: Guangzhou Shipping Exchange |UPDATED: 2020-06-19Visit Statistics:

Figures from the Guangzhou Shipping Exchange (GSE) showed that on June 12, the Pearl River Freight Index rose slightly to 943.02, thanks to a recovery in the Bulk Freight Index (PBFI) which closed at 1034.37. The Containerized Freight Index (PCFI) edged down to 876.87 instead.

China has entered its main flood season and accumulated precipitation this year is 6% higher than average, pushing water levels in 148 rivers well above warning lines. The eastern and southern parts of the country have experienced record-breaking downpours of the year. Container shipping market faces a weaker outlook for demand.

2020年6月12日,广州航运交易所发布的珠江航运综合运价指数有所报收943.02点,较上期上涨0.44点。本期珠江航运集装箱运价指数报收876.87点,较上期下跌0.20点;珠江航运散货指数报收1034.37点,较上期上涨1.33点。

当前,我国已全面进入汛期。今年以来全国累积降水量较常年同期偏多6%,共出现19次强降水过程,有148条河流发生超过警戒线水位以上的洪水。特别是6月2日以来,江南、华南和西南东部发生了今年以来强度最大、范围最大、持续时间最长的降雨过程,珠江流域西江和北江、长江流域湘江和鄱阳湖水系、浙江钱塘江水系部分中小河流发生超过警戒线水位的洪水,一些河流出现超过警戒水位或是历史记录的大洪水,西江、北江均发生今年第1号洪水,局部地区发生了洪涝灾害。

集运市场方面,市场需求不振,叠加强降水天气影响,本期内河内贸、内河外贸和香港集装箱航线运价指数全线下跌,集指下滑0.20点;散货市场方面,各大散货运价指数表现不一,涨跌互现。其中煤炭、水泥、粮食航线运价指数上涨,带动散指上涨。本期综指在散指上涨带动下略有回升。

Pic 1-Pearl River Freight Index (PRFI)

1 珠江航运运价指数

Container freight rates on both domestic and foreign trade routes via inland waters as well as Hong Kong routes drifted downward this week. Flooding on rivers in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region has slowed navigation and rates increased on routes from Wuzhou and Guigang to Hong Kong.

广州航运交易所发布的珠江航运集装箱运价指数报收876.87点,较上期下跌0.2点。

内河内贸方面,本周内河内贸航线运价指数环比下跌0.035%。其中南沙/黄埔-肇庆、南沙/黄埔/虎门-珠海、南沙/黄埔/虎门-梧州等航线运价指数环比有所上涨,涨幅在0.076%-0.454%;黄埔-南沙、南沙/黄埔/虎门-清远、南沙/黄埔/虎门-贵港、南沙/黄埔-江门、珠海-贵港航线运价指数有所下跌,跌幅为0.038%-0.778%

本期内河外贸航线运价指数继续弱势下行,环比下跌0.012%,其中佛山-深圳西、中山-南沙航线运价指数分别下跌0.132%和0.206%;贵港-深圳西、肇庆-深圳西等航线运价指数有所上涨,其中以肇庆-深圳西涨幅0.309%为最高。

本期香港航线运价指数延续跌势,环比下跌0.025%,工厂出货并不理想,加之暴雨袭击,肇庆-香港、江门-香港、南沙/黄埔-香港航线运价承压下跌,指数环比有所下跌,跌幅在0.063%-0.263%;因暴雨洪水导致水流急航程长,梧州-香港、贵港-香港航线运价指数环比上涨0.387%和0.045%。

Pic 2-Pearl River Containerized Freight Index (PCFI)

2 珠江航运集装箱运价指数

The peak season of coal consumption has started in South China and coal freight rates rallied 0.218% this week. Ore freight rates also reported growth of 0.123% because of restricted sailings in flood-hit areas.

Steel demand has softened amid the rainy season and rates fell 0.126%. Grain freight rates kept rising, up 0.286% from the previous week, while sand freight rates held stable.

广州航运交易所发布的珠江航运散货运价指数报收1034.37点,较上期上涨1.33点。

南方进入传统耗煤旺季,煤炭拉运积极,市场商谈升温,加之雨水影响,本期煤炭航线运价指数止跌转涨,环比上涨0.218%。除虎门-佛山、黄埔-贵港分别下跌0.683%和0.855%外,珠海-贵港、南沙-江门、黄埔-清远、虎门-清远、南沙-佛山航线运价指数均有不同程度的上涨,其中以虎门-清远航线涨幅2.64%最大。

受雨水天气影响,工地施工节奏被迫放缓,影响成材的成交和需求,本期南沙-九江航线运价指数继续走低,环比下跌0.669%,影响钢材航线运价指数环比下跌0.126%

矿石市场方面,受雨水侵袭,南方地区水泥出货减少,但因船舶航行受限,贵港-南沙水泥航线运价指数环比上涨0.452%,本期矿石航线指数继续上涨,环比涨幅为0.123%

本期南沙-肇庆、南沙-梧州粮食航线运价指数环比分别上涨0.612%和0.392%,带动粮食航线运价指数继续上涨,环比涨幅为0.286%

本期沙石自卸船航线运价指数整体保持平稳。

Pic 3-Pearl River Bulk Freight Index (PBFI)

3珠江航运散货运价指数

Domestic Market Overview

市场综述 

Coal Market: The plum rain season witnessed a decline in electricity demand from residential and commercial air conditioning in South China. Coal inventories at major coastal power plants piled up to 15.47 million tons as of June 12, with daily consumption maintaining at around 600,000 tons.

However, coal stocks at most other power plants have been reduced to relatively low levels and restocking is expected to be accelerated to ensure electricity supply for the peak summer season. Coal prices have been climbing up and demand from the cement sector has remained strong in some regions where plants are running at full capacity.

煤炭市场方面,截至6月12日,沿海六大电厂煤炭库存为1547.79万吨,日耗为65.96万吨,可用天数为23.47天。目前,多数电厂整体库存水平较低,“迎峰度夏”存在一定补库空间,加上国内煤价持续上涨,在买涨不买跌情绪作用下,市场寻船增多,近日运价出现小幅上涨,但小船偏差。不过,近日市场上有传闻要放开进口限制,市场观望情绪加重,采购更趋谨慎,煤炭货盘暂时仍以长协煤为主,加之海沙严打,运力相对过剩,运价仍有一定承压。

近期,南方步入梅雨季,降低了制冷用电需求,加之水电发电情况改善,使得六大电厂日耗在60万吨左右反复,同时库存小幅向上修复至1527万吨,存煤可用天数24天;目前,电厂主要以长协刚需拉运为主,市场煤采购较少。不过,部分区域水泥厂维持满负荷生产,水泥需求略好,加之用煤旺季到来,全国气温升高,民用电或将凸显,日耗预计还将继续上升,叠加进口煤额度限制,电厂或将积极补库,增加拉运采购力度。

Table 1-Coal inventories and consumption of six major coastal power plants

1 沿海六大电厂数据汇总    数据来源:煤炭江湖

Table 2-Coal inventories of Guangzhou Port by June 11

2 广州港煤炭库存   数据来源:广州华南煤炭交易中心

Steel Market: The Chinese government has rolled out some favorable polices to stimulate the steel market but it's going to take a while for them to be effective. The market growth has slowed down and could see a correction in prices in the short term.

Overall, steel prices are likely to stand high with some fluctuations, given increasing costs of iron ore, coke and other raw materials.

钢材市场方面。今年政府工作报告“两新一重”的提出或将为“钢需”带来强势动能,但毕竟已进入6月,南方多雨天气到来,受季节性影响,工地开工率必然会受到影响,而且,“两会”提出的政策确实利好未来钢市,但这些政策发力传导到钢铁领域还需时间,故而短期对钢市的拉动作用将不会太明显。综合来看,随着市场涨至高位,下游观望情绪增加,钢市持续上行动力不足,钢价继续快速拉涨难以为继,短期行情将面临高位调整,不排除会小幅下行。考虑到目前铁矿石、废钢等原料价格较高,短期或仍可支撑钢价高位波动。

Table 3-Price changes of major steel products by June 11

表3 主要钢材品种价格变化    数据来源:我的钢铁网

Pic 4- South China Steel Price Index

4 华南建筑钢材价格指数    数据来源:广东价格指数平台

Cement Market: China’s Cement Price Index (CEMPI) and the Clinker Price Index (CLKPI) slipped to 146.65 and 140.42 on June 11. The Yangtze River Cement Price Index (YRCPI) also decreased to 154.05.

June kicks off the off season for China’s cement industry and shipments across the country dropped 8.3% this week. Cement inventory turnover ratio reached 55.1%. The average cement price continued to stay at the record high level of 440 yuan/ton.

水泥市场方面,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收146.65点,同比下跌1.8%,环比下跌0.7%。长江水泥价格指数(YRCPI)报收154.05点,同比下跌2.38%,环比下跌1.79%。全国熟料价格指数(CLKPI)报收140.42点,同比下跌3.07%,环比下跌1.75%。

6月,水泥行业进入淡季,大部分地区受到持续降雨影响,本周全国水泥出货率环比回落8.3个百分点至80.47%,水泥库容比实现55.1%,环比上涨1个百分点,同比下降2.8个百分点;全国水泥均价为440元/吨,环比下降0.38%,同比上涨0.96%,继续处于历史同期最高水平。

Pic 5-China & Pearl River-Xijiang River Cement Price Index

5 全国以及珠江-西江水泥价格指数走势    数据来源:水泥研究院

Aggregates Market: More than 900 sets of Beidou-based terminal devices will be mounted on sand dredgers and carriers for full-day monitoring of their activities in the Yangtze River, as Chinese authorities adopted stricter regulations on sand mining and transportation in the river.

沙石方面。6月9日,水利部、公安部、交通运输部在南京召开长江河道采砂管理合作机制领导小组会议,这是三部委合作机制建立以来召开的首次联合会议。会议指出,交通运输部将免费提供900多套单北斗终端,安装到长江河道所有集中停靠点的采砂、运砂船,力争实现24小时全程监控。会议要求,督促各地严格落实长江河道砂石采运管理“四联单”制度。

Editor: Pauline Tai