Weekly Pearl River Freight Index (6.13-6.19)
珠江航运运价指数周刊2020第22期
SOURCE: Guangzhou Shipping Exchange |UPDATED: 2020-06-28Visit Statistics:

Figures from the Guangzhou Shipping Exchange (GSE) showed that on June 19, the Pearl River Freight Index rose sharply to 949.68.

Inland navigation is getting back on track as flood waters began to recede in some parts of China. Shipping demand for both container and bulk cargo is picking up. The Bulk Freight Index (PBFI) gained strong momentum with 15.07% growth this week, closing at 1049.44. The Containerized Freight Index (PCFI) also edged up to 877.44.

Ocean carriers are still restricting capacity to prop up rates, which may lower the demand for a wide variety of goods from Asia in the third quarter of the year, the traditional peak season for Asian manufacturers.

Hong Kong’s container shipping market remains depressed, having seen throughput drop for 28 months in a row. Ports in Hong Kong only handled around 7 million TEUs of cargo from January to May, a 6.5% decline from a year earlier, according to the Hong Kong Maritime and Port Board.

2020年6月19日,广州航运交易所发布的珠江航运综合运价指数有所报收949.68点,较上期上涨6.66点。本期珠江航运集装箱运价指数报收877.44点,较上期上涨0.57点;珠江航运散货指数报收1049.44点,较上期上涨15.07点。

第三季度通常是集运公司的旺季,主要欧美市场的购物需求从返校潮到感恩节、圣诞节,将带动货主积极将各类消费品从制造地亚洲一波一波送往欧美市场。然而,受疫情影响,集运公司第三季度还在减班以维持运价,期待的报复性消费难现。近日,香港海运港口局公布数据显示,1-5月香港港口完成7,075,000标箱,同比下跌6.5%,连跌第28个月,香港集装箱市场仍旧疲弱。

集运市场方面,洪水消退船舶航线恢复正常,市场需求有所释放,本期内河内贸、内河外贸和香港集装箱航线运价指数均略有上涨,带动集指回升;散货市场方面,暴雨洪水不利因素消除,高温晴好天气重现,工地工程施工加快节奏,煤炭、钢材运输需求释放,航线运价指数上涨,带动散指上涨。本期综指在集指、散指的双双推动下有力上涨。

Pic 1-Pearl River Freight Index (PRFI)

1 珠江航运运价指数

Container freight rates on inland waterway routes for domestic trade have recovered over the past week, up 0.224% as heavy downpours abated. Rates on foreign trade routes and Hong Kong routes also reported mild increases of 0.01% and 0.025% respectively, but markets have stayed flat.

广州航运交易所发布的珠江航运集装箱运价指数报收877.44点,较上期上涨0.57点。

内河内贸方面,强降水影响告一段落,本期内河内贸航线需求有所恢复,市场出货增加,运价指数有所回升,环比上涨0.224%。其中黄埔-南沙、南沙/黄埔/虎门-贵港、南沙/黄埔/虎门-清远、珠海-贵港、南沙/黄埔-佛山、南沙/黄埔/虎门-梧州等航线运价指数环比有所上涨,其中以黄埔-南沙航线运价指数涨幅为1.727%最高;南沙/黄埔-肇庆、南沙/黄埔/虎门-深圳西航线运价指数有所下跌,跌幅分别为0.355%和0.268%

内河外贸和香港集装箱市场需求同样有所恢复,但整体需求仍显疲软,指数涨幅微弱,上涨乏力。本期内河外贸航线运价指数继续保持弱势,环比上涨0.01%。其中南沙/黄埔-深圳西、珠海-深圳西、贵港-深圳西等航线运价指数有所下跌,跌幅在0.001%至0.125%;佛山-深圳西、中山-南沙等航线运价指数有所上涨,涨幅分别为0.137%和0.215%

本期香港航线运价指数止跌微涨,环比上涨0.025%,梧州-香港、南沙/黄埔-香港航线运价指数环比分别上涨0.184%和0.063%;贵港-香港航线运价指数环比下跌0.018%

Pic 2-Pearl River Containerized Freight Index (PCFI)

2 珠江航运集装箱运价指数

South China is feeling the heat again. More coal is needed to generate power for air conditioning. Coal prices have been on the rise, pushing the freight rates up 2.276% this week. Steel freight rates jumped 5.019% because the market has markedly improved since the incessant rains eased off.

Ore freight rates decreased 0.424%, facing a bearish outlook for cement demand. Grain freight rates also fell 0.865%, while sand freight rates held stable.

广州航运交易所发布的珠江航运散货运价指数报收1049.44点,较上期上涨15.07点。

本周华南地区气温逐步升高,高温天气重现,日耗煤量上升,电厂补库需求增强,加之近期煤炭价格处于上行通道,本期煤炭航线运价指数有力上涨,环比涨幅为2.276%。其中珠海-贵港、虎门-佛山、珠海-佛山、黄埔-佛山、黄埔-贵港、南沙-佛山等多条航线运价指数均有不同程度的上涨,其中以黄埔-佛山航线涨幅6.651%最大。

上周受持续强降雨影响,钢材需求阶段性回落,本期钢材拉运需求有所恢复,南沙-九江、黄埔-乐从、南沙-乐从航线运价指数全线上涨,环比涨幅在3.732%至6.59%,推动钢材航线运价指数环比上涨5.019%

矿石市场方面,随着6月雨季的来临,水泥需求明显走淡,近期水泥库存已有回升势头,水泥价格存在疲软下行压力,本期水泥航线运价指数全线下跌,其中贵港-南沙、英德-南沙和云浮-南沙水泥航线运价指数环比分别下跌0.128%、0.801%和0.577%,拖累本期矿石航线指数下滑,环比跌幅为0.424%

本期粮食市场拉运需求走弱,南沙-肇庆、南沙-梧州、南沙-佛山粮食航线运价指数全线下跌,其中以南沙-肇庆航线运价指数跌幅为0.937%最大,受此影响,粮食航线运价指数整体下跌0.865%

本期沙石自卸船航线运价指数整体保持平稳。

Pic 3-Pearl River Bulk Freight Index (PBFI)

3珠江航运散货运价指数

Domestic Market Overview

市场综

Coal Market: Hydropower stations in China have been busy with flood discharge due to days of rainfalls, adding up pressure on coal-fired electricity supply. Daily consumption of coal has remained high at major coastal power plants, with their stockpiles standing at around 15.62 million tons as of June 19.

China is further restricting coal imports with only a few quotas left at southern ports. Meanwhile, imported coal stocks at the Port of Xinsha in Guangzhou are barely enough to last through July, and the selling price has surged up to 50 yuan/ton. This is expected to boost the demand for domestic coal supply, especially for coal products in northern markets.

Electricity use will continue upward as the peak summer season approaches, but to sustain growth in coal-fired power generation depends heavily on weather conditions.

煤炭市场方面,截至6月19日,沿海六大电厂煤炭库存为1562.72万吨,日耗为67万吨,可用天数为23.32天。受全国大范围降雨影响,部分水电站开启泄洪模式,水电出力不畅下,火电负荷增加,促使沿海主要电厂日耗虽有反复,但依旧维持在高位运行。进口煤方面,目前,国内大多数海关通关受限,剩余额度多集中终端电厂;华南地区只有个别港口还有少量 进口煤额度,据了解,广东的新沙港目前所剩进口煤库存只能维持到7月。目前新沙、海昌港进口煤销价均呈上涨态势,最高涨幅达50元!另有部分电厂已停止使用澳洲煤。进口煤通关难度及不确定性较强,造成有部分外贸需求转向内贸煤炭;预计近期一段时间内,沿海用煤终端北上采购需求将有所增加,对港口煤价有一定支撑。随着迎峰度夏的到来,社会用电量继续增加,需求继续看好;而后续电厂日耗能否继续回升,还需要“看天吃饭”。如果持续出现炎热少雨气候,电厂日耗还会增加,必然刺激煤炭采购和拉运继续增加。

Table 1-Coal inventories and consumption of six major coastal power plants

1 沿海六大电厂数据汇总    数据来源:煤炭江湖

Table 2-Coal inventories of Guangzhou Port by June 18

2 广州港煤炭库存   数据来源:广州华南煤炭交易中心

Steel Market: Steel demand has softened as heavy rains battered the East and South China recently, which slowed down the process of destocking. Current market conditions in the south is relatively weaker than in the north, and prices of flat products are holding up better than long and tubular ones.

Construction of major projects have been accelerated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, which will give some boosts to the steel demand. Steel prices are likely to remain stable, supported by favorable financial policies and increasing costs of iron ore and coke.

钢材市场方面。今年“入梅”较往年提前了一周左右的时间,上周华南、华东、西南地区受持续强降雨影响需求阶段性回落,降库明显放缓,呈现“板强长弱”、“北强南弱”的特点。但整体宏观利好氛围依旧,MLF续做、原料端焦炭第五轮提涨陆续落地,铁矿石维持高位都成为当前钢价的重要支撑。值得注意的是,今年受疫情影响,北方需求启动相对滞后,随着京津冀重大项目的加速开工,将在一定程度上降低梅雨季对需求端的影响,钢材价格波动幅度有限。

Table 3-Price changes of major steel products by June 18

3 主要钢材品种价格变化    数据来源:我的钢铁网

Pic 4- South China Steel Price Index

4 华南建筑钢材价格指数    数据来源:广东价格指数平台

Cement Market: China’s Cement Price Index (CEMPI) and the Clinker Price Index (CLKPI) slipped to 145.42 and 136.61 on June 18. The Yangtze River Cement Price Index (YRCPI) also decreased to 150.22.

The rainy weather has hampered construction projects in Guangdong province. The recent entry of a considerable number of new competitors has put even more pressure on existing cement makers. To seize more market share, enterprises in some parts of the Pearl River Delta knocked down the concrete price by 10-20 yuan per cubic meter.

The average cement price in Guangzhou was quoted at 440-560 yuan/ton on June 16, and that of white portland cement stayed at 700-1005 yuan/ton.

水泥市场方面,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收145.42点,同比下跌2.17%,环比上涨0.05%。长江水泥价格指数(YRCPI)报收150.22点,同比下跌3.69%,环比上涨0.02%。全国熟料价格指数(CLKPI)报收136.61点,同比下跌5.49%,环比持平。

来自市场方面的反馈信息显示,近期广东省内受持续雨水天气影响,工程施工进度下滑,需求降低,搅拌站出货量下降,部分企业产能过剩。加之有相当数量的新建搅拌站进入市场,数量多,市场集中度不高,企业层次普遍较低。为抢占市场份额,珠三角部分地区混凝土价格回调10-20元/方。6月16日,广州水泥市场方面,多个品牌的普通水泥售价为440-560元/吨不等,个别知名品牌则超出600元/吨。白水泥方面,售价比普通水泥高得多,维持在700-1005元/吨不等。受强降雨影响较大,一些工程施工短时停摆,但钢材、水泥等暂未出现明显下跌。

Pic 5-China & Pearl River-Xijiang River Cement Price Index

5 全国以及珠江-西江水泥价格指数走势    数据来源:水泥研究院

Aggregates Market: Free Alongside Ship price (duty paid) of imported river sand was quoted at as high as 120-125 yuan/ton in the Pearl River Delta, resulted from tight supply from Malaysia and the Philippines.

Domestic supply has also reduced as China is stepping up efforts to crack down on illegal sand mining activities. The price of natural sand maintained at 140-160 yuan/ton in Guangdong Province, and could see a strong uptrend in the short term. Prices of both machine-made sand and gravel stood at 110 yuan/ton.

沙石方面。广东地区近期雨水天气较多,但是由于进口砂石量逐渐下滑,且国内严厉打击海上非法采砂等行为,随之马来西亚和菲律宾进口河砂以及国内天然供应收窄,国内进口砂珠三角地区靠岸含税价格在120-125元/吨。本地天然河砂市场价格基本维持在140-160元/吨之间,机制砂110元/吨、碎石110元/吨。本地砂石市场需求一般,但是由于供应量降低,因此预计短期广东地区天然砂行情稳中偏强。

Editor: Pauline Tai