Weekly Pearl River Freight Index (12.28-1.03)
珠江航运运价指数周刊2020第01期
SOURCE: Guangzhou Shipping Exchange |UPDATED: 2020-01-07Visit Statistics:

The average Pearl River Freight Index (PRFI) and the Containerized Freight Index (PCFI) edged up to 953.42 and 871 respectively this week. The Bulk Freight Index (PBFI) rose strongly to 1067.23, according to a report issued by the Guangzhou Shipping Exchange (GSE) on January 3.

本期广州航运交易所发布的珠江航运综合运价指数报收953.42点,较上期上涨2.55点。本期珠江航运集装箱运价指数报收871点,较上期上涨1.5点;珠江航运散货指数报收1067.23点,较上期上涨4点。

Pic 1-Pearl River Freight Index (PRFI)

图1 珠江航运运价指数 

The container shipping market has quietened down as the Spring Festival draws near, and the freight rates of most routes fluctuated by 5-10 yuan/TEU. Some manufacturers are hurrying to deliver their products before the holiday, which led to a shortage of space on board and pulled up the freight rates of several routes by 150 yuan/TEU.  

广州航运交易所发布的珠江航运集装箱运价指数871点,较上期上涨1.5点。进入1月份,春节在即,集运市场整体转向平淡,部分航线因厂家抓紧在节前出货,舱位一时紧张,运价上涨。内河内贸方面,本期南沙/黄埔-东莞、南沙/黄埔-佛山、南沙/黄埔-江门、南沙/黄埔/虎门-梧州、黄埔-南沙、珠海-贵港航线运价下跌5元/TEU;因节前赶货,舱位紧张,南沙/黄埔/虎门-贵港航线运价上涨150元/TEU;香港集装箱市场方面,市场行情平淡,运价上涨乏力,本期贵港-香港、南沙/黄埔-香港航线运价上涨5元/TEU,梧州-香港、航线运价下跌5元/TEU;内河外贸集装箱市场方面,本期中山-南沙、肇庆-南沙、南沙/黄埔-深圳西航线运价上涨10元/TEU;佛山-南沙、佛山-深圳西、贵港-南沙航线运价下跌5-10元/TEU

Pic 2-Pearl River Containerized Freight Index (PCFI)

2 珠江航运集装箱运价指数 

The demand for coal shipping has increased and freight rates fluctuated by 0.5-5 yuan/ton. For steel, freight rate of the Huangpu - Lecong route slipped by 0.5 yuan/ton, while sand and grain freight rates remained stable. As construction work gradually came to a halt for the upcoming Spring Festival, cement demand has declined, which lowered the freight rate of the Guigang - Nansha route by 1-2.5 yuan/ton. 

广州航运交易所发布的珠江航运散货运价指数报收1067.23点,较上期上涨4点。煤炭方面,本期市场拉运需求有所提升,多条航线运价涨跌互现,黄埔-贵港、珠海-贵港航线较上期有1-5元的上下波动,虎门-佛山、虎门-清远航线运价下跌1元/吨;珠海-佛山、南沙-佛山航线运价上涨0.5元/吨;钢材方面,本周黄埔-乐从航线运价有所回落,运价下跌0.5元/吨;矿石市场方面,年关将近,工地陆续准备放假,水泥需求有所下降,本期贵港-南沙航线运价下跌1-2.5元/吨;沙石自卸船与粮食市场本期运价继续保持平稳。

Pic 3-Pearl River Bulk Freight Index (PBFI)

3珠江航运散货运价指数

Domestic Market Overview

市场综述

Coal Market: Coal inventories of six major coastal power plants have declined to around 15.2721 million tons by Jan.3, with daily consumption at about 702,600 tons. Coal supply is expected to be restricted this month due to ongoing inspections on safe and green production, as well as transport difficulties in cold weather. Family heating and restocking from the downstream sector will help to stimulate growth in coke, coal and steel industry in the short term. However, with the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, the overall demand for coal may fall, which will also be affected by the warm winter and nationwide industrial reform towards eco-friendly development to address overcapacity.  

煤炭市场方面,尽管近期电厂库存出现明显消耗,截至1月3日,沿海六大电厂煤炭库存为1527.21万吨,日耗为70.26万吨,可用天数为21.74天。对1月份国内煤炭市场走势影响较大的因素分析如下:利好方面,一是“春节”期间,环保与安全检查不会减弱,煤矿资源供给能力受限;二是一月份正值一年中气温最低时段,居民采暖用电需求对动力煤市场的支撑作用明显;三是冬季运输受限以及下游补库需求对煤焦钢行业形成短期刺激。利空方面,一是今年天气偏暖,对煤炭整体需求构成抑制;二是受春节影响工厂放假逐渐增多,用电需求阶段性减弱;三是钢铁与焦化行业由于环保和去产能政策影响,煤炭需求将出现下滑。

Table 1-Coal inventories and consumption of six major coastal power plants

1 沿海六大电厂数据汇总    数据来源:煤炭江湖 

Table 2-Coal inventories of Guangzhou Port by January 2

表2 广州港煤炭库存   数据来源:广州华南煤炭交易中心 

Steel Market: Trade growth has stayed weak as deadlines for many construction projects were over, and the weather conditions were unfavorable for engineering lately. The market demand has dropped quickly last month and is expected to continue downward with the approach of the Spring Festival holiday. The volatile steel price may stabilize this month and fluctuate within a narrow range. 

钢材市场方面。12月份,国内钢市需求快速回落。国内大部分地区在赶工期陆续结束后,下游需求难以维持高位,叠加气温持续下降以及阴雨天气增多等因素,市场交投气氛日渐疲软,本月每周销量持续下跌。进入一月份后,受春节假期因素影响工地将逐步全面停工,预计1月份市场整体需求较12月份将继续回落。展望2020年1月钢材市场价格,有望在震荡后企稳运行,上下波动幅度有限。

Table 3-Price changes of major steel products by January 2

3 主要钢材品种价格变化    数据来源:我的钢铁网 

Pic 4- South China Steel Price Index

图4 华南建筑钢材价格指数    数据来源:广东价格指数平台 

Cement Market: The CEMPI (Cement Price Index) edged up to 166.36 from a year earlier. The YRCPI (Yangtze River Cement Price Index) and the CLKPI (Clinker Price Index) fell to 180.05 and 157.36 respectively on January 2. With strong demand from the South, China’s cement and aggregate output reached 2.13 billion tons from January to November last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Cement and clinker prices in eastern Guangdong province hiked further this week to 20 yuan/ ton. Fujian and southern Jiangxi provinces, as well as the Pearl River Delta also reported soaring cement prices, partly due to the introduction of some government policies that facilitate the funding of infrastructure projects.

水泥市场方面,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收166.36点,同比上涨2.89%,环比下跌0.05%。长江水泥价格指数(YRCPI)报收180.05点,同比下跌0.85%,环比下跌0.13%。全国熟料价格指数(CLKPI)报收157.36点,同比下跌1.51%,环比持平。淡季并不“清淡”,南方对水泥的需求明显上升。从官方数据可以看出,水泥的需求面有很强的支撑。国家统计局的统计数据显示,今年1月至11月,全国水泥骨料产量为21.3亿吨,同比增长6.1%。强劲的需求是许多南部地区水泥价格上涨的主要驱动因素。具体来说,广东东部的水泥价格上周继续上涨。27日,各种等级水泥和熟料的价格从每吨10元涨到20元。此外,包括赣南、福建和珠江三角洲在内的周边地区的水泥价格均出现上涨,与粤东形成联动效应。相关政策的提前出台也是近期水泥价格上涨的原因之一。2020年提前分配专项债务额度、降低资本充足率等政策推动了稳定的投资,为大量基础设施项目带来了新的资金。

Pic 5-China & Pearl River-Xijiang River Cement Price Index

5 全国以及珠江-西江水泥价格指数走势    数据来源:水泥研究院 

Sand and Gravel Market: The Ministry of Natural Resources recently issued a notice about the regulation on temporary use of land, which stipulates the time limit and approval procedures for the use. The notice is likely to make a change in the renewal of temporary use permits, which is crucial to the mining industry. 

沙石方面。临时用地是我国砂石行业乃至矿业都关注的问题。日前,自然资源部《关于规范临时用地管理的通知》征求意见,对临时用地时限、审批等做出规定。据了解,我国矿业临时用地制度形成于特定时期,运用于包括砂石开采在内的部分矿山项目,部分矿山依赖于两年重新办理一次临时用地手续维持正常生产,甚至成为规避正规征地手续的常用办法,其中弊病也日渐明显。其实,呼吁我国对采矿用地出台法律法规明确的呼声由来已久,本次征求意见的《通知》中也并未明文对采矿临时用地做出规定。但作为临时用地的一种,采矿临时用地无疑处在《通知》管辖范围内,未来采矿临时用地到期后还能否再次申请将打上一个问号。目前,《通知》正在征求意见。

Editor: Pauline Tai