Weekly Pearl River Freight Index (1.04-1.10)
珠江航运运价指数周刊2020第02期
SOURCE: Guangzhou Shipping Exchange |UPDATED: 2020-01-15Visit Statistics:

 

The average Pearl River Freight Index (PRFI) and the Containerized Freight Index (PCFI) edged up to 956.09 and 871.17respectively this week. The Bulk Freight Index (PBFI) rose strongly to 1073.36, according to a report issued by the Guangzhou Shipping Exchange (GSE) on January 10.

本期广州航运交易所发布的珠江航运综合运价指数报收956.09点,较上期上涨2.67点。本期珠江航运集装箱运价指数报收871.17点,较上期上涨0.17点;珠江航运散货指数报收1073.36点,较上期上涨6.13点。 

Water inflow and outflow have reduced sharply in the Changzhou reservoir on the Xijiang River since January 2, which caused severe traffic pressure and great fluctuations in the freight rates of Guangxi routes. Measures have been taken to hopefully ease the congestion in a short time. As traders are hurrying to deliver their products before the Spring Festival, space on vessels has remained tight and pulled up the freight rates of most routes. 

2020年1月2日起,西江上游来水量迅速减少,长洲枢纽出库流量锐减,大量重载船舶因航道水深不足而滞留于枢纽上下游河段,滞航船舶数量一度多达800余艘,造成本期广西方向的集散航线运价出现较大幅度的波动。据了解,滞航船舶的疏导工作目前已取得初步成果。据水电部门通报,上游水库已加大出库流量,预计未来三天,长洲枢纽出库流量将逐渐增加至2300m³/s左右,加上春节将近,下行过闸船舶将迅速减少,滞航船舶有望在短时间内得到疏导。 春节在即,从下周开始,大部分船东将陆续进入放假模式,贸易商抓紧节前最后的时间出货,舱位紧张,运力紧俏,本期集散多条航线运价均有所上涨。

Pic 1-Pearl River Freight Index (PRFI)

1 珠江航运运价指数 

The containerized freight rates of most routes fluctuated by 5 yuan/TEU, while some of the domestic trade routes via inland waters dropped by 5-50 yuan/TEU. 

广州航运交易所发布的珠江航运集装箱运价指数871.17点,较上期上涨0.17点。内河内贸方面,本期黄埔-南沙、珠海-贵港航线运价上涨5元/TEU;南沙/黄埔-江门、南沙/黄埔/虎门-贵港航线运价下跌5-50元/TEU; 香港集装箱市场方面,本期江门-香港、肇庆-香港、梧州-香港航线运价上涨5元/TEU;内河外贸集装箱市场方面,本期贵港-南沙、黄埔-南沙航线运价上涨5元/TEU;佛山-深圳西、南沙/黄埔-深圳西航线运价下跌5元/TEU 

Pic 2-Pearl River Containerized Freight Index (PCFI)

图2 珠江航运集装箱运价指数 

Coal, ore and grain freight rates saw rises and falls by 1-8 yuan/ton this week. Steel and sand freight rates grew by 0.5-1 yuan/ton.  

广州航运交易所发布的珠江航运散货运价指数报收1073.36点,较上期上涨6.13点。煤炭方面,本期黄埔-贵港、珠海-贵港、珠海-佛山、黄埔-清远等航线表现活跃,运价有涨有跌,较上期有1-8元的上下波动, 南沙-佛山、南沙-江门等航线运价下跌1-3元/吨;虎门-佛山、虎门-清远航线运价上涨1元/吨;钢材方面,本周南沙-九江、黄埔-乐从、南沙-乐从航线运价上涨0.5-1元/吨;矿石市场方面,本期云浮-南沙、贵港-南沙英德-南沙的水泥航线运价涨跌互现,运价涨跌幅度在1-3元/吨;南沙-深圳西的矿石航线上涨1元/吨;粮食市场,南沙-梧州、南沙-肇庆航线运价下跌3-5元/吨;南沙-佛山、南沙-梧州、南沙-肇庆运价上涨1-2元/吨;沙石自卸船方面,江门-南沙航线运价上涨1元/吨。

Pic 3-Pearl River Bulk Freight Index (PBFI)

3珠江航运散货运价指数

Domestic Market Overview

市场综述 

Coal Market: Coal inventories of six major coastal power plants stood at around 14.9477 million tons by Jan.10, and consumption may slow down as the Spring Festival draws near. Coal supply has gradually reduced with ongoing inspections for green and safe production. Meanwhile, main coal plants have halted work as annual production plans were accomplished. shipment decline has led to a slump in port stocks of coal. Therefore, the price is moving upward but is expected to be limited by weak demand, due to industrial reform to tackle overcapacity and continuous entry of coal imports. 

煤炭市场方面,尽管近期电厂库存出现明显消耗,截至1月10日,沿海六大电厂煤炭库存为1494.77万吨,日耗为71.79万吨,可用天数为20.82天。进入1月份,一方面,主产区受环保安检以及年生产计划完成影响开始陆续停产,供应减量预期逐步兑现,坑口价高位盘整,春节临近,贸易商清理库存基本结束,发运基本停止,导致港口调入持续低位运行,库存持续骤降,可售资源基本告罄,报价持续上涨。另一方面,沿海终端电厂开启去库存模式,进口煤通关预期逐步增强,而临近春节,日耗将季节性走弱,市场煤采购需求增量短期内难以释放,煤价进一步上涨空间有限。 

Table 1-Coal inventories and consumption of six major coastal power plants

1 沿海六大电厂数据汇总    数据来源:煤炭江湖 

Table 2-Coal inventories of Guangzhou Port by January 10

2 广州港煤炭库存  数据来源:广州华南煤炭交易中心 

Steel Market: The market demand has remained weak as winter storage is coming to an end and many construction projects were either stopped or finished. However, steel production has not been trimmed. The steel price, though having rebounded this week, may fluctuate as supply pressure gets intense.

钢材市场方面。临近岁末,国内钢材价格逐渐止跌,在央行降准等宏观利好消息提振下,钢材期货价格呈现反弹,带动现货市场预期转暖,本周国内部分地区钢材价格小幅回升。然而,考虑到北方地区已经进入冬储阶段,而南方及华东地区终端工程加速收尾,需求难有持续表现;且当下钢厂生产积极性不减,供应端仍处于高位;在刚需下降的趋势下,市场供需矛盾更加突出。本周国内钢材社会库存大幅上升,意味着累库进程加快,也对后期价格形成心理压制。进入元月中旬后,不少地区已经进入停工状态,国内钢市即将转入有价无市的阶段,市场价格波动更多取决于钢厂与贸易商的博弈,市场行情需求趋弱,价格盘整。

Table 3-Price changes of major steel products by January 9

3 主要钢材品种价格变化    数据来源:我的钢铁网

Pic 4- South China Steel Price Index

4 华南建筑钢材价格指数    数据来源:广东价格指数平台 

Cement Market: The CEMPI (Cement Price Index) climbed to 165.57 from a year earlier. The YRCPI (Yangtze River Cement Price Index) and the CLKPI (Clinker Price Index) also spiked up to 179.55 and 156.99 respectively on January 9. Cement and clinker inventories of major enterprises in the Guangdong province have reached an all-time low, while the market demand is expected to stay as strong as the peak season. Given this situation, an initiative to stabilize prices and secure supply was launched by the Guangdong Province Cement Association on December 31. As the Spring Festival approaches, cement price may keep stable in the short term with small declines, which will last through March.  

水泥市场方面,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收165.57点,同比上涨6.41%,环比下跌0.06%。长江水泥价格指数(YRCPI)报收179.55点,同比上涨8.14%,环比无变化。全国熟料价格指数(CLKPI)报收156.99点,同比上涨7.46%,环比下跌0.24%。广东省水泥行业协会2019年12月31日发布了《关于确保广东省水泥市场稳价保供的倡议》。该文件说,广东省重点水泥生产企业水泥和熟料总库存不到30%,创历史最低纪录。倡议各水泥生产企业保持价格稳定,平稳度过水泥需求旺季。基建项目较多、资金压力不大,水泥需求将维持旺季水平,2020年上半年需求预期较为乐观,预计短期内水泥将步入冬季行情,价格逐步淡稳,后期节日临近,或有一定幅度的回调下跌,预计2020年春季行情或将在3月初逐步开启。

Pic 5-China & Pearl River-Xijiang River Cement Price Index

图5 全国以及珠江-西江水泥价格指数走势    数据来源:水泥研究院 

Sand and Gravel Market: Commercial gravel mining activities will be prohibited in nine rivers and streams in the Doumen district of Zhuhai city this year, according to a recent notice published by the local water bureau. 

沙石方面。近日,广东省珠海市斗门区水务局发布《关于划定 2020 年度斗门区许可发证河道河砂可采区禁采区的通知》,(以下简称《通知》,《通知》列明珠海市斗门区9个河道为2020 年度河道禁采区,禁止一切河道采砂活动。以下河道为 2020 年度河道禁采区:(一)虎跳门水道:北起莲洲镇横坑水道西端口,南至斗门区南门大桥止,全长 18.44 公里。(二)鸡啼门水道:北起井岸镇尖峰大桥,向西南径流至井岸镇黄金水文站止,全长 9.37 公里。(三)黄杨河水道:北起莲洲镇大沙联围粉洲沙仔尾,南至井岸镇尖峰山大桥止,全长 13.69 公里。(四)螺洲河:北起白蕉镇竹银联围竹洲头,南至莲洲镇大沙联围粉洲沙仔尾,全长 11.53 公里。(五)赤粉水道:北起莲洲镇横坑水道与荷麻溪水道交汇处,南至莲洲镇大沙联围粉洲沙仔尾止,全长 6.25 公里。(六)荷麻溪水道:北起莲洲镇上横联围二就围,南至莲洲镇横坑水道与荷麻溪水道交汇处止,全长 6.78 公里。(七)涝涝溪水道:北起莲洲镇三沙联围三角村,南至莲洲镇横坑水道西端口处止,全长 7.55 公里。(八)涝涝溪西水道:北起莲洲镇三沙联围獭山村,南至莲洲镇横坑水道西端口处止,全长 8.9 公里。(九)横坑水道:东起莲洲镇赤粉水道与荷麻溪水道交汇处,西至虎跳门水道与涝涝溪水道交汇处止,全长 3.23 公里。

Editor: Pauline Tai