Weekly Pearl River Freight Index (12.21-12.27)
珠江航运运价指数周刊2019第47期
SOURCE: Guangzhou Shipping Exchange |UPDATED: 2019-12-31Visit Statistics:

The average Pearl River Freight Index (PRFI) and the Containerized Freight Index (PCFI) saw a small rise this week to 950.87 and 869.5 respectively. The Bulk Freight Index (PBFI) also increased to 1063.23, according to a report issued by the Guangzhou Shipping Exchange (GSE) on December 27.

本期广州航运交易所发布的珠江航运综合运价指数报收950.87点,较上期上涨0.65点。本期珠江航运集装箱运价指数报收869.5点,较上期上涨0.34点;珠江航运散货指数报收1063.23点,较上期上涨1.08点。

Pic 1-Pearl River Freight Index (PRFI)

1 珠江航运运价指数

With rises and falls, the containerized freight rates of domestic trade routes via inland waters were under pressure from the weakening market demand, while those of foreign trade routes picked up with growing shipments. The freight rates of Hong Kong routes climbed by 5 yuan/TEU as ships were having limited space on board. 

广州航运交易所发布的珠江航运集装箱运价指数869.5点,较上期上涨0.34点。内河内贸方面,市场需求减弱,运价承压,本期南沙/黄埔-肇庆、南沙/黄埔/虎门-梧州、南沙/黄埔-江门航线运价上涨5元/TEU,南沙/黄埔/虎门-贵港、南沙/黄埔/虎门-深圳西、珠海-贵港航线运价下跌5-10元/TEU;香港集装箱市场方面,舱位紧张带动运价上浮,本期江门-香港、贵港-香港、梧州-香港航线运价上涨5元/TEU;内河外贸集装箱市场方面,临近年关,市场抓紧出货,运价有所回升,本期贵港-南沙、佛山-南沙、佛山-深圳西航线运价上涨5-10元/TEU;南沙/黄埔-深圳西航线运价下跌5元/TEU

Pic 2-Pearl River Containerized Freight Index (PCFI)

2 珠江航运集装箱运价指数

The demand for coal shipping has held steady and freight rates fluctuated by 0.5-2 yuan/ton. Steel freight rates edged up by 0.5 yuan/ton as shipments increased, while sand and grain freight rates remained stable. The growth of cement freight rates has slowed down slightly and fluctuated by 0.5-1 yuan/ton. 

广州航运交易所发布的珠江航运散货运价指数报收1063.23点,较上期上涨1.08点。煤炭方面,本期市场拉运需求继续保持平稳,多条航线运价涨跌互现,南沙-江门、黄埔-贵港、珠海-贵港等航线较上期有0.5-2元的上下波动,珠海-佛山航线运价下跌0.5元/吨;钢材方面,市场出货有所增加,本周黄埔-乐从、南沙-九江航线运价上涨0.5元/吨;矿石市场方面,年关将近,水泥运价涨势有所放缓,本期贵港-南沙航线运价有涨有跌,波动幅度为0.5-1元/吨,云浮-南沙航线运价下跌1元/吨;沙石自卸船与粮食市场本期运价相对平稳。

Pic 3-Pearl River Bulk Freight Index (PBFI)

图3珠江航运散货运价指数

Domestic Market Overview

市场综述

Coal Market: Coal inventories of six major coastal power plants have declined to about 16.0577 million tons by Dec.27, down over 1 million tons from earlier this month, but they are still able to last through mid-January. To prepare for a nationwide market-oriented reform that will soon be carried out in the industry, power enterprises are seeking to lower the costs from upstream sectors and are less willing to restock coal. With the entry of coal imports next month and stable coal supplies based under long-term contracts, the demand for domestic coal is limited. 

煤炭市场方面,尽管近期电厂库存出现明显消耗,截至12月27日,沿海六大电厂煤炭库存已经下降至1605.77万吨,较月初下降超过百万吨,但是,电厂补库并不积极。一方面,在电力市场化背景下,电力企业向上游控制成本意愿增强,加之目前库存水平虽有消耗,但远高于近几年均值水平,煤炭库存可用天数基本可以覆盖至明年1月中旬;另一方面,1月进口限制政策放开,此前未能通关的煤炭将迅速涌入,在有效补充南方电厂煤炭库存的同时,也能减轻北方港供应压力。此外,长协报价稳定,电厂主要以执行长协合同为主,对市场煤需求有限。

Table 1-Coal inventories and consumption of six major coastal power plants

表1 沿海六大电厂数据汇总    数据来源:煤炭江湖

Table 2-Coal inventories of Guangzhou Port by December 20

2 广州港煤炭库存   数据来源:广州华南煤炭交易中心

Steel Market: The winter storage policies recently issued by steel mills are less appealing to traders, with higher settlement prices than last year. And after the losses in 2018 and the decline in industry profits this year, the market demand has remained weak. The steel price is expected to keep moving downward and the market may shrink further. 

钢材市场方面。临近春节,需求疲软,库存被动累积。从今年冬储行情来看,贸易商积极性普遍不高,一方面,今年钢材冬储政策较为强势,结算价格普遍高于去年同期,另一方面,多数商户受到去年亏损影响,在今年行业利润普遍下行的背景下,冬储意愿不高。目前市场情绪偏空,成交继续萎缩,钢价下行趋势不改,且高价区域跌幅更为明显。

Table 3-Price changes of major steel products by December 26

3 主要钢材品种价格变化    数据来源:我的钢铁网 

Pic 4- South China Steel Price Index

4 华南建筑钢材价格指数    数据来源:广东价格指数平台 

Cement Market: The CEMPI (Cement Price Index) edged up to 166.4 from a year earlier. The YRCPI (Yangtze River Cement Price Index) and the CLKPI (Clinker Price Index) fell to 180.26 and 157.36 respectively on December 26. The cement price in Guangdong province has stood high and kept soaring since the fourth quarter this year, due to the tight supply resulted from the Guangxi Datengxia Gorge Water Conservancy Project. However, the upward trend may slow down next year and industry profits may start to shrink from 2021. As China is pushing forward with its environmental policies, the cement price is expected to turn volatile which will require a risk-response mechanism for both the upstream and downstream sectors. 

水泥市场方面,全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收166.4点,同比上涨2.51%,环比上涨0.01%。长江水泥价格指数(YRCPI)报收180.26点,同比下跌1.69%,环比无变化。全国熟料价格指数(CLKPI)报收157.36点,同比下跌1.79%,环比上涨0.09%。自2019年第四季度以来,广东水泥价格一直高位坚挺,甚至一路飙升,据当地水泥厂反馈,今年广东地区水泥市场行情因受到广西大藤峡水利枢纽工程截流断航影响,不仅沿江地区水运受阻导致运输成本增加,当地水泥熟料库存更是供不应求,广东水泥市场整体保持高位震荡运行。预计2020年水泥需求有基建托底,地产虽下行但仍有支撑,水泥总需求预计持平或小幅下滑。2020年水泥价格预计仍有小幅度的上涨,涨幅比2019年继续放缓。明年有可能是水泥行业效益见顶的一年,2021年全行业效益预计将开始会萎缩。对于水泥行业来说,未来价格波动难以预测,环保更是加大价格波动,上下游参与方却缺乏应对价格波动的机制。

Pic 5-China & Pearl River-Xijiang River Cement Price Index

5 全国以及珠江-西江水泥价格指数走势    数据来源:水泥研究院 

Sand and Gravel Market: As the mining industry is playing a more important role to the national economy, the Ministry of Natural Resources recently released a draft amendment to the Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China. Mine preservation and restoration, mineral exploration and regulation on mining activities are expected to see future adjustments. 

沙石方面。当前,在我国大力推进经济高质量发展的大背景下,砂石等矿业对国民经济的支撑作用愈发凸显。我国年产砂石超200亿吨,产值约2万亿元,已成为国民经济的重要组成部分。日前,自然资源部发布《中华人民共和国矿产资源法(修订草案)》(征求意见稿)(以下简称《征求意见稿》),公开征求社会各界意见。《征求意见稿》规定,在中华人民共和国领域及中华人民共和国管辖的其他海域,从事矿产资源的保护、勘查、开采、矿区生态修复及其监督管理的活动,适用本法。从《征求意见稿》规定内容来看,未来砂石矿山矿权、开采、修复等将迎重大调整!

Editor: Pauline Tai